Bitcoin on-chain analysis, an overview of 6/3/22–6/10/22
Bitcoin On-Chain and Derivatives
Bitcoin temperature bands tell us how many standard deviations market price is from the 4-year trend. Bitcoin is approaching its 4-year trend, sitting just above $21K.
This has put pressure on short-term holders, with the percentage of total supply in profit held by STHs retesting historical lows.
This has translated to one of the lowest readings in the short-term holder profit/loss ratio.
Traditional bear market behaviour:
Short-term holders both capitulate and/or age past the 155-day threshold into long-term holders, the STH cost basis declines and the LTH cost basis rises in the bear.
Long-term holder CB currently sits at $22,300 (blue) and short-term holder CB at $36,000 (pink). If they are to cross, it is likely they will do so in the upper $20,000s.
If/when they cross it would mark a high conviction buy opportunity, putting the dark blue oscillator below the green line at the bottom of the chart.
A cross below realized price would mean the market is underwater in aggregate by definition and would put the oscillator below in the green buy zone.
The spot premium to futures has persisted for months now, one of the longest regimes of which in Bitcoin’s history.
A derivative of premium, aggregated funding rates for perpetual futures remain muted.
Miner margins have been getting broadly compressed with hash rising, difficulty rising, and price dropping.
This margin compression has led to the selling of inventory from miners.
The amount of Bitcoin supply that hasn’t moved in at least a year continues to climb, pushing all-time highs of 65.5%.